Machine Learning Models for Deciphering Regulatory Mechanisms and Morphological Variations in Cancer

The exponential growth of multi-omics biological datasets is resulting in an emerging paradigm shift in fundamental biological research. In recent years, imaging and transcriptomics datasets are increasingly incorporated into biological studies, pushing biology further into the domain of data-intensive-sciences. New approaches and tools from statistics, computer science, and data engineering are profoundly influencing biological research. Harnessing this ever-growing deluge of multi-omics biological data requires the development of novel and creative computational approaches. In parallel, fundamental research in data sciences and Artificial Intelligence (AI) has advanced tremendously, allowing the scientific community to generate a massive amount of knowledge from data. Advances in Deep Learning (DL), in particular, are transforming many branches of engineering, science, and technology. Several of these methodologies have already been adapted for harnessing biological datasets; however, there is still a need to further adapt and tailor these techniques to new and emerging technologies. In this dissertation, we present computational algorithms and tools that we have developed to study gene-regulation and cellular morphology in cancer. The models and platforms that we have developed are general and widely applicable to several problems relating to dysregulation of gene expression in diseases. Our pipelines and software packages are disseminated in public repositories for larger scientific community use. This dissertation is organized in three main projects. In the first project, we present Causal Inference Engine (CIE), an integrated platform for the identification and interpretation of active regulators of transcriptional response. The platform offers visualization tools and pathway enrichment analysis to map predicted regulators to Reactome pathways. We provide a parallelized R-package for fast and flexible directional enrichment analysis to run the inference on custom regulatory networks. Next, we designed and developed MODEX, a fully automated text-mining system to extract and annotate causal regulatory interaction between Transcription Factors (TFs) and genes from the biomedical literature. MODEX uses putative TF-gene interactions derived from high-throughput ChIP-Seq or other experiments and seeks to collect evidence and meta-data in the biomedical literature to validate and annotate the interactions. MODEX is a complementary platform to CIE that provides auxiliary information on CIE inferred interactions by mining the literature. In the second project, we present a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) classifier to perform a pan-cancer analysis of tumor morphology, and predict mutations in key genes. The main challenges were to determine morphological features underlying a genetic status and assess whether these features were common in other cancer types. We trained an Inception-v3 based model to predict TP53 mutation in five cancer types with the highest rate of TP53 mutations. We also performed a cross-classification analysis to assess shared morphological features across multiple cancer types. Further, we applied a similar methodology to classify HER2 status in breast cancer and predict response to treatment in HER2 positive samples. For this study, our training slides were manually annotated by expert pathologists to highlight Regions of Interest (ROIs) associated with HER2+/- tumor microenvironment. Our results indicated that there are strong morphological features associated with each tumor type. Moreover, our predictions highly agree with manual annotations in the test set, indicating the feasibility of our approach in devising an image-based diagnostic tool for HER2 status and treatment response prediction. We have validated our model using samples from an independent cohort, which demonstrates the generalizability of our approach. Finally, in the third project, we present an approach to use spatial transcriptomics data to predict spatially-resolved active gene regulatory mechanisms in tissues. Using spatial transcriptomics, we identified tissue regions with differentially expressed genes and applied our CIE methodology to predict active TFs that can potentially regulate the marker genes in the region. This project bridged the gap between inference of active regulators using molecular data and morphological studies using images. The results demonstrate a significant local pattern in TF activity across the tissue, indicating differential spatial-regulation in tissues. The results suggest that the integrative analysis of spatial transcriptomics data with CIE can capture discriminant features and identify localized TF-target links in the tissue

Human Gait Database for Normal Walk Collected by Smart Phone Accelerometer

The goal of this study is to introduce a comprehensive gait database of 93 human subjects who walked between two endpoints during two different sessions and record their gait data using two smartphones, one was attached to the right thigh and another one on the left side of the waist. This data is collected with the intention to be utilized by a deep learning-based method which requires enough time points. The metadata including age, gender, smoking, daily exercise time, height, and weight of an individual is recorded. this data set is publicly available

Pan-cancer classifications of tumor histological images using deep learning

Histopathological images are essential for the diagnosis of cancer type and selection of optimal treatment. However, the current clinical process of manual inspection of images is time consuming and prone to intra- and inter-observer variability. Here we show that key aspects of cancer image analysis can be performed by deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) across a wide spectrum of cancer types. In particular, we implement CNN architectures based on Google Inception v3 transfer learning to analyze 27815 H&E slides from 23 cohorts in The Cancer Genome Atlas in studies of tumor/normal status, cancer subtype, and mutation status. For 19 solid cancer types we are able to classify tumor/normal status of whole slide images with extremely high AUCs (0.995±0.008). We are also able to classify cancer subtypes within 10 tissue types with AUC values well above random expectations (micro-average 0.87±0.1). We then perform a cross-classification analysis of tumor/normal status across tumor types. We find that classifiers trained on one type are often effective in distinguishing tumor from normal in other cancer types, with the relationships among classifiers matching known cancer tissue relationships. For the more challenging problem of mutational status, we are able to classify TP53 mutations in three cancer types with AUCs from 0.65-0.80 using a fully-trained CNN, and with similar cross-classification accuracy across tissues. These studies demonstrate the power of CNNs for not only classifying histopathological images in diverse cancer types, but also for revealing shared biology between tumors. We have made software available at: https://github.com/javadnoorb/HistCNNFirst author draf

Deep learning-based cross-classifications reveal conserved spatial behaviors within tumor histological images.

Histopathological images are a rich but incompletely explored data type for studying cancer. Manual inspection is time consuming, making it challenging to use for image data mining. Here we show that convolutional neural networks (CNNs) can be systematically applied across cancer types, enabling comparisons to reveal shared spatial behaviors. We develop CNN architectures to analyze 27,815 hematoxylin and eosin scanned images from The Cancer Genome Atlas for tumor/normal, cancer subtype, and mutation classification. Our CNNs are able to classify TCGA pathologist-annotated tumor/normal status of whole slide images (WSIs) in 19 cancer types with consistently high AUCs (0.995 ± 0.008), as well as subtypes with lower but significant accuracy (AUC 0.87 ± 0.1). Remarkably, tumor/normal CNNs trained on one tissue are effective in others (AUC 0.88 ± 0.11), with classifier relationships also recapitulating known adenocarcinoma, carcinoma, and developmental biology. Moreover, classifier comparisons reveal intra-slide spatial similarities, with an average tile-level correlation of 0.45 ± 0.16 between classifier pairs. Breast cancers, bladder cancers, and uterine cancers have spatial patterns that are particularly easy to detect, suggesting these cancers can be canonical types for image analysis. Patterns for TP53 mutations can also be detected, with WSI self- and cross-tissue AUCs ranging from 0.65-0.80. Finally, we comparatively evaluate CNNs on 170 breast and colon cancer images with pathologist-annotated nuclei, finding that both cellular and intercellular regions contribute to CNN accuracy. These results demonstrate the power of CNNs not only for histopathological classification, but also for cross-comparisons to reveal conserved spatial behaviors across tumors

Deep learning-based cross-classifications reveal conserved spatial behaviors within tumor histological images

Histopathological images are a rich but incompletely explored data type for studying cancer. Manual inspection is time consuming, making it challenging to use for image data mining. Here we show that convolutional neural networks (CNNs) can be systematically applied across cancer types, enabling comparisons to reveal shared spatial behaviors. We develop CNN architectures to analyze 27,815 hematoxylin and eosin scanned images from The Cancer Genome Atlas for tumor/normal, cancer subtype, and mutation classification. Our CNNs are able to classify TCGA pathologist-annotated tumor/normal status of whole slide images (WSIs) in 19 cancer types with consistently high AUCs (0.995 ± 0.008), as well as subtypes with lower but significant accuracy (AUC 0.87 ± 0.1). Remarkably, tumor/normal CNNs trained on one tissue are effective in others (AUC 0.88 ± 0.11), with classifier relationships also recapitulating known adenocarcinoma, carcinoma, and developmental biology. Moreover, classifier comparisons reveal intra-slide spatial similarities, with an average tile-level correlation of 0.45 ± 0.16 between classifier pairs. Breast cancers, bladder cancers, and uterine cancers have spatial patterns that are particularly easy to detect, suggesting these cancers can be canonical types for image analysis. Patterns for TP53 mutations can also be detected, with WSI self- and cross-tissue AUCs ranging from 0.65-0.80. Finally, we comparatively evaluate CNNs on 170 breast and colon cancer images with pathologist-annotated nuclei, finding that both cellular and intercellular regions contribute to CNN accuracy. These results demonstrate the power of CNNs not only for histopathological classification, but also for cross-comparisons to reveal conserved spatial behaviors across tumors.R01 CA230031 - NCI NIH HHSPublished versio

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019